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IJE Advance Access published online on June 5, 2007
International Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/ije/dym079
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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2007; all rights reserved.

Commentary: The Preston Curve 30 years on: still sparking fires

David E Bloom1,* and David Canning2

1Clarence James Gamble, Professor of Economics and Demography and Chair, Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health
2Professor of Economics and International Health, Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health

*Corresponding author. Building I, 11th Floor, 665, Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115USA. E-mail: dbloom@hsph.harvard.edu

Accepted 10 April 2006

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Samuel H Preston's classic paper,1 ‘The Changing Relation between Mortality and Level of Economic Development’, published in 1975, remains a cornerstone of both global public health policy and academic discussion of public health. Preston's paper illuminates two central ‘stylized facts’. The first is a strong, positive relationship between national income levels and life expectancy in poorer countries, though the relationship is non-linear as life expectancy levels in richer countries are less sensitive to variations in average income. The second is that the relationship is changing, with life expectancy increasing over time at all income levels.

Preston examined the relationship between life expectancy and income in three different decades: the 1900s, 1930s and 1960s. In each . . . [Full Text of this Article]


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