IJE Advance Access published online on December 14, 2006
International Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/ije/dyl258
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Short-run economic effects of the Scottish smoking ban
1 Department of Economics, University College London.
2 Department of Epidemiology, University College London.
3 Institute for Fiscal Studies, London.
4 Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics.
* Corresponding author. Department of Economics, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK. E-mail: s.berlinski{at}ucl.ac.uk
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Abstract |
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Background We estimated the short-run economic impacts of the Scottish smoking ban on public houses. Previous findings on the effect of smoking bans on the hospitality sector have mainly focused on the United States. These studies have mostly found no negative economic effects of such legislation on the hospitality sector in the long run. However, differences in the social use of public houses in Great Britain in comparison with the United States may lead to different findings.
Methods We used a quasi-experimental research design that compared the sales and number of customers in public houses located in Scotland before and after the Scottish smoking ban was introduced, relative to a control group of establishments across the English border where no ban was imposed. To perform this analysis, we collected data on 2724 pubs, 1590 in Scotland and 1134 in Northern England by phone interviews using quota sampling.
Results We found that the Scottish ban led to a 10% decrease in sales [P = 0.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) –19% to –2%] and a 14% decrease in customers (P = 0.02, 95% CI –26% to –2%).
Conclusion Our study suggests that the Scottish smoking ban had a negative economic impact on public houses, at least in the short run, due in part to a drop in the number of customers.
Keywords Smoking, legislation, second-hand smoke, hospitality sector
Accepted 23 October 2006
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