IJE Advance Access published online on November 23, 2004
International Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/ije/dyh358
© 2004 by International Epidemiological Association
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 Measurement and Health Information Systems, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Hygiene and Public Health, Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. Background In Japan, higher mortality rates from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been observed than in any other industrialized country and the reported numbers of deaths due to HCC have increased significantly in recent years. We assessed whether there was a real increase in mortality from HCC and which factors contributed to the recent increasing trends of the number of deaths from HCC. Methods Poisson regression models were used to analyse panel data for the period 1972-2001. Results In both sexes, age-standardized mortality rates from HCC increased significantly over the past three decades. Among males the annual percentage increase in ageadjusted mortality rates was approximately 1-3% during the period 1972-96. On the other hand, female mortality trends were less clear. The estimated birth cohort effects suggested that there was a peak in the mortality risk among the cohorts born during the period 1927-36, which corresponded to those aged between 50-64 years during the period 1987-96. This was the period when a large increase of both age-specific mortality rates among older age groups and age-standardized mortality rates were observed particularly among males. Conclusions This study shows that an upward trend of mortality from HCC in Japan was primarily due to the effects among birth cohorts born around 1930, which are consistent with the pattern of past exposure to hepatitis C virus. The cohort effects have contributed to a large increase in mortality from HCC in recent years and the number of deaths from HCC is expected to increase by 2010-15.
Original paper
Regression analysis of trends in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma in Japan, 1972-2001
2 Department of Hygiene and Public Health, Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Kenji Shibuya, E-mail: shibuyak{at}who.int
Abstract
A Commentary has been commissioned to accompany this paper and will appear in the print issue with this article.
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
Related articles in Int. J. Epidemiol.:
- Commentary: Liver cancer and the epidemiological and cancer transition theories
- Omer Gersten
Int. J. Epidemiol. 2005 10.1093/ije/dyi004.[Abstract]
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  R. Y. Suruki, N. Mueller, K. Hayashi, D. Harn, V. DeGruttola, C. A. Raker, H. Tsubouchi, and S. O. Stuver Host Immune Status and Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma among Subjects Infected with Hepatitis C Virus: A Nested Case-Control Study in Japan Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., December 1, 2006; 15(12): 2521 - 2525. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. Franceschi, M. Montella, J. Polesel, C. La Vecchia, A. Crispo, L. Dal Maso, P. Casarin, F. Izzo, L. G. Tommasi, I. Chemin, et al. Hepatitis viruses, alcohol, and tobacco in the etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy. Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., April 1, 2006; 15(4): 683 - 689. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 O. Gersten Commentary: Liver cancer and the epidemiological and cancer transition theories Int. J. Epidemiol., April 1, 2005; 34(2): 403 - 404. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|