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IJE Advance Access published online on March 11, 2005
International Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/ije/dyh308
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IJE © International Epidemiological Association 2005; all rights reserved.
Accepted April 2, 1982

Reprints and Reflections

Incubation period of coronary heart disease

Geoffrey Rose 1

1 Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT


  Abstract

Serum cholesterol concentrations and blood pressure were measured during 1958-64 among men aged 40-59 who took part in the Seven Countries Study. In the present study these measurements were related to the national mortality from coronary heart disease in the periods 1959-61, 1964-6, 1969-71, and 1974-6. The correlations increased with time (r = +0.86, 0.90, 0.93, and 0.96 respectively for serum cholesterol concentration and r = +0.48, 0.56, 0.57, and 0.64 for systolic blood pressure), suggesting that the ‘incubation period’ between exposure to major coronary risk factors and the maximum effects on mortality may be 10 years or more.

Geoffrey Rose, DM, FRCP, professor of epidemiology.


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