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© 1979 Oxford University Press

research-article

A Stochastic Compartment Model of Stomach Cancer with Correlated Waiting Time Distributions

K G MANTON1, E STALLARD1, D BURDICK2 and H D TOLLEY3

1Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University Box 4732, Duke Station, Durham, North carolina 27706, USA
2Department of Mathematics, Duke University Durham, North Carolina, USA
3Institute of Statistics, Texas A & M University College Station, Texas

Manton K G [Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Box 4732, Duke Station, Durham, North Carolina, 27706, USA]. Stallard E, Burdick D and Tolley H D. A stochastic compartment model of stomach cancer with correlated waiting time distributions. International Journal of Epidemiology 1979, 283–291

The incidence and growth rate of stomach cancer in the US population is modelled, for each sex, as a partially observed, discrete state stochastic process. Explicit evaluation of the transition rates between the states of the model is made possible by identifying them as specific functions of the time spent within each state. The functions used in the model were selected from the medical and epidemiological literature. With the model it was found possible to obtain fits to the age distribution of deaths due to stomach cancer for white males in 1975 and for selected age ranges for white females. These results suggested that the natural history of stomach cancer is different for females above and below age 65.

Received 1 May 1979


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