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IJE Advance Access originally published online on July 17, 2006
International Journal of Epidemiology 2006 35(5):1253-1254; doi:10.1093/ije/dyl158
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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2006; all rights reserved.

Commentary

Commentary: Predicting future coronary heart disease deaths in Finland and elsewhere

Simon Capewell

University Of Liverpool, UK E-mail: capewell@liverpool.ac.uk

The first 10% of the full text of this article appears below.

Globally, cardiovascular disease will remain the dominant cause of death and disability in the next few decades. In Finland, and in many other industrialized countries, age-adjusted coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have halved recently, mainly as a result of reductions in major risk factors (cholesterol, smoking, and blood pressure), plus additional gains from medical treatments.1 The pressing question is: given demographic ageing, what is going to happen to disease prevalence and, hence, the population burden of disease?

In this issue, Huovinen et al.2 have used Bayesian statistics to predict demographic ageing and CHD deaths in Finland, up to . . . [Full Text of this Article]


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