IJE Advance Access originally published online on March 15, 2006
International Journal of Epidemiology 2006 35(3):572-578; doi:10.1093/ije/dyl003
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2006; all rights reserved.
Commentary |
Commentary: Grading the credibility of molecular evidence for complex diseases
Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, Ioannina 45110, Greece E-mail: jioannid@cc.uoi.gr
Keywords Epidemiology, evidence, grading, bias, false discovery, complex diseases, Bayesian credibility
Accepted 11 August 2005
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
Dissecting the aetiology of complex diseases has been a great challenge for biomedical research, including epidemiology. Several thinkers,1–4 including Buchanan et al.5 recently, have focused on the unquestionable difficulties of this ambitious enterprise and the great obstacles encountered in the way. Some of them have ended up with a futility outlook. Over more than a decade, the debate has ranged wild on whether epidemiology has reached its limits,6 is either dead or in a vegetative state, should call it a day, and whether ‘it is time for scientists to re-think the quest’ and realize that ‘base metal cannot be turned to gold’.5
In this commentary, I will not argue whether the challenges for attaining evidence are formidable in the current, molecular era. I will certainly not propose that the ‘hunger of the paying public for easy answers and promises’5 should be superficially satisfied. However, I will argue that not
 |
Scientific prehistory (stone age until approximately early 21st century?) |
|---|
|
Are ‘macroscopic’ risk factors defendable? |
|---|
|
Is epidemiology a match for biology and aetiology? |
|---|
|
A flood of candidate risk factors |
|---|
|
Solid knowledge vs tentative information |
|---|
|
Grading of molecular evidence |
|---|
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  J. P. Ioannidis, P. Boffetta, J. Little, T. R O'Brien, A. G Uitterlinden, P. Vineis, D. J Balding, A. Chokkalingam, S. M Dolan, W D. Flanders, et al. Assessment of cumulative evidence on genetic associations: interim guidelines Int. J. Epidemiol., February 1, 2008; 37(1): 120 - 132. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 T. R. Rebbeck, M. J. Khoury, and J. D. Potter Genetic Association Studies of Cancer: Where Do We Go from Here? Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., May 1, 2007; 16(5): 864 - 865. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 E. E. Ntzani, E. C. Rizos, and J. P. A. Ioannidis Genetic Effects versus Bias for Candidate Polymorphisms in Myocardial Infarction: Case Study and Overview of Large-Scale Evidence Am. J. Epidemiol., May 1, 2007; 165(9): 973 - 984. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 J. P. A. Ioannidis Common genetic variants for breast cancer: 32 largely refuted candidates and larger prospects. J Natl Cancer Inst, October 4, 2006; 98(19): 1350 - 1353. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
M. J KHOURY and M. GWINN Genomics, epidemiology, and common complex diseases: let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater! Int. J. Epidemiol., October 1, 2006; 35(5): 1363 - 1364. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. EBRAHIM The future of modern epidemiology: genetics, methods, and history Int. J. Epidemiol., June 1, 2006; 35(3): 511 - 512. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. V Buchanan, K. M Weiss, and S. M Fullerton On stones, wands, and promises Int. J. Epidemiol., June 1, 2006; 35(3): 593 - 596. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|