International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 33, Number 2, pp. 235-239
IJE vol.33 no.2 © International Epidemiological Association 2004; all rights reserved.
Editorial |
Observations, predictions and decisions—assessing cardiovascular risk assessment
Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Germany. E-mail: hense{at}uni-muenster.de
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‘All policy (including treatment) decisions should be based on absolute measures of risk; relative risk is strictly for researchers only.’Within the last decade, cardiovascular medicine has seen a proliferation of algorithms, functions, and scores that have been generated with the aim of accurately predicting the probability of a subsequent cardiovascular event in individuals free of symptomatic disease of the heart and the blood vessels. Most national and international guidelines for the management of patients with cardiovascular risk factors presently contain some formal assessment of the absolute risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) or cardiovascular disease (CVD).2–5 The magnitude of this risk is commonly expressed as the per cent chance of suffering a fatal or non-fatal event over the next 5 or 10 years. The data required for calculating risk involve basic demographic information such as age and sex, and varying biochemical, physiological, clinical, and lifestyleGeoffrey Rose1
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