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International Journal of Epidemiology 2003;32:725-726
© International Epidemiological Association 2003

Special Theme: Infectious Diseases

Commentary: Modelling the epidemiology of hepatitis C and its complications

Gregory L Armstrong

Division of Viral Hepatitis, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Mailstop G-37, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. E-mail: garmstrong@cdc.gov

The first 10% of the full text of this article appears below.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) was well adapted to emerge worldwide in the late 20th century. Transmitted primarily through percutaneous routes, it took advantage of two emerging epidemics: an epidemic of recreational injection drug use in industrialized countries and an epidemic of unsafe injections primarily in developing countries, made possible by the expanded use of parenteral therapeutics and declining injection equipment prices after the World War II. The result at the beginning of the 21st century is a large pool of HCV-infected people, many of whom have asymptomatic, slowly progressing liver disease.

The greatest burden from HCV infection will come from the long-term complications of this chronic liver disease, namely cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, which in any individual may take decades to . . . [Full Text of this Article]


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