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© 1974 Oxford University Press

research-article

Culture of the Faeces in the Diagnosis of Sonne Dysentery: A Statistical Method for Estimating the True Isolation Rate

HILARY E. TILLETT1 and MAIR E. M. THOMAS2

12 Epidemiological Research Laboratory, Central Public Health Laboratory Colindale Avenue, London, NW9 5HT, England

Reprint requests should be addressed to Dr. Mair E. M. Thomas.

An estimate of the isolation rate of Sh. sonnei from the faeces of infected patients with active diarrhoea was made using maximum likelihood methods of analysis. The overall isolation rate was estimated to be 92 per cent ±3 per cent and may have been as high as 96 per cent for specimens collected within the first three days of illness. It fell below 74 per cent if a week or more had elapsed since the onset even though diarrhoea was continuing. The rate was slightly higher for children than for adults. A few acute cases in infected households were persistently negative bacteriologically.

Very prompt investigation of cases and outbreaks of gastroenteritis is indicated.

This method of estimation would appear to be applicable to assessing the sensitivity of other techniques used for the diagnosis of conditions with a tendency to aggregate in small defined groups such as households.

Received 19 December 1973


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