International Journal of Epidemiology 2000;29:1053-1059
© International Epidemiological Association 2000
Estimating deaths from industrial injury by capture-recapture: a cautionary tale
a Mathematical Institute, School of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, University of St Andrews, Scotland.
b Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, USA.
c Center for Injury Research and Policy, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, USA.
Background Capture-recapture methods are increasingly being used to improve surveillance for a number of diseases. However, concerns persist regarding the validity of estimates obtained.
Method Capture-recapture methods were applied to estimate the ability of four separate data sources on occupational fatalities to predict the 237 deaths (‘gold standard’) we determined from a special in-depth study of medical examiner records.
Results and Conclusion Capture-recapture results based upon the four sources vary according to different models. However, both separately and in aggregate of industry type and cause of death, most models seriously underestimate the gold standard, and give a misleading impression of precision of the estimate of hidden individuals. It is commonly believed that reliable estimates from such methods require lists with high coverage and parsimonious models. Here, to obtain an estimate consistent with the gold standard, the list with almost complete coverage must be discarded and a complex model fitted. It is argued that this conclusion is of widespread application.
Keywords Occupational injury, capture-recapture, interactions, log-linear model
Accepted 7 June 2000
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  R. L. Knowles, A. Smith, R. Lynn, J. S. Rahi, and on behalf of the British Paediatric Surveillance U Using multiple sources to improve and measure case ascertainment in surveillance studies: 20 years of the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit J. Public Health Med., June 1, 2006; 28(2): 157 - 165. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 G. S. Smith, H. M. Wellman, G. S. Sorock, M. Warner, T. K. Courtney, G. S. Pransky, and L. A. Fingerhut Injuries at Work in the US Adult Population: Contributions to the Total Injury Burden Am J Public Health, July 1, 2005; 95(7): 1213 - 1219. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 G S Smith Public health approaches to occupational injury prevention: do they work? Inj. Prev., September 1, 2001; 7(90001): i3 - 10. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|