International Journal of Epidemiology 2000;29:503-509
© International Epidemiological Association 2000
Economic development and traffic accident mortality in the industrialized world, 1962–1990
Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Reprint requests to: Eduard F van Beeck, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands. E-mail: vanbeeck{at}mgz.fgg.eur.nl
Background We examined the association between prosperity and traffic accident mortality in the industrialized world in a long-term perspective.
Methods We calculated traffic accident mortality, traffic mobility and the fatal injury rate of 21 industrialized countries from 1962 until 1990. We used mortality and population data of the World Health Organization (WHO), and figures on motor vehicle ownership of the International Road Federation (IRF). We examined cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of these traffic-related variables with the prosperity level per country, derived from data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Results We found a reversal from a positive relation between prosperity and traffic accident mortality in the 1960s to a negative association currently. At a certain level of prosperity, the growth rate of traffic mobility decelerates and the fatal injury rate continues to decline at a similar rate to earlier phases.
Conclusions In a long-term perspective, the relation between prosperity and traffic accident mortality appears to be non-linear: economic development first leads to a growing number of traffic-related deaths, but later becomes protective. Prosperity growth is not only associated with growing numbers of motor vehicles in the population, but also seems to stimulate adaptation mechanisms, such as improvements in the traffic infrastructure and trauma care.
Keywords Traffic accident mortality, traffic mobility, fatal injury rate, economic development
Accepted 2 December 1999
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