Skip Navigation

This Article
Right arrow FREE Full Text (PDF) Freely available
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in ISI Web of Science
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrow Search for citing articles in:
ISI Web of Science (2)
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Robertson, C.
Right arrow Articles by Ecob, R.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Robertson, C.
Right arrow Articles by Ecob, R.
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?

International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 28, 955-963, Copyright © 1999 by International Epidemiological Association

ARTICLES

Simultaneous modelling of time trends and regional variation in mortality rates

C Robertson and R Ecob
Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, European Institute of Oncology, Milan, Italy. crobert@ieo.it

BACKGROUND: We seek to model the regional component of the variance in the mortality rates in the UK and to ascertain if there is evidence that this regional variance is increasing in recent periods. METHODS: Age Period Cohort (APC) models, based on the local 'curvatures', are used in each region to describe the changes in the trends in the mortality rates. This is extended to a multilevel model to estimate the regional component of the variance in the rates and to estimate the effect of regional differences in the trends in the rates. We show how the use of a multilevel APC model can help to distinguish the cohort and period trends in the mortality rates from the cohort and period effects on the regional variance in these rates. RESULTS: For both sexes, but particularly for females, a reduction in the rate of decrease in mortality was found around 1960. In addition, particularly for females, cohorts born after 1930 appear to show reductions in mortality at an increased rate. It is demonstrated that there is evidence that the between-region variation in the rates has not remained constant and that it is much less now than it was at the beginning of the data series. Further, there is evidence that the trends in the rates are not the same in all regions and that while there is a convergence of the rates in many regions, Scotland, in particular, stands out as a region which contributes most to the regional variation in mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Evidence of regional variation in mortality rates has been found with a suggestion of a decrease over the period of the study though with some stability since 1951.
Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us    What's this?




Disclaimer:
Please note that abstracts for content published before 1996 were created through digital scanning and may therefore not exactly replicate the text of the original print issues. All efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, but the Publisher will not be held responsible for any remaining inaccuracies. If you require any further clarification, please contact our Customer Services Department.