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International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 28, 905-910, Copyright © 1999 by International Epidemiological Association

ARTICLES

The impact of the major causes of death on life expectancy in Italy

S Conti, G Farchi, M Masocco, V Toccaceli and M Vichi
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Roma, Italy. susanna@iss.it

BACKGROUND: This study aims to evaluate the contribution of the reduction in major cardiovascular diseases (CVD), malignant neoplasms (MN), accidents and AIDS mortality to the gains in life expectancy observed during the decade 1985-1994, as well as to calculate and compare the potential gains due to the partial or total elimination of these causes. METHODS: Mortality data from the Italian Mortality Data Base were analysed by the method of decomposition of changes in life expectancy and the partial multiple decrement life table technique. RESULTS: In Italy, considering the decade 1985-1994, the gain in life expectancy at birth was 2.27 years for men and 2.16 for women. The major contribution to this increase was the reduction in CVD mortality followed by fewer deaths from accidents and MN. Conversely, AIDS caused a loss in the length of life of adults. Major potential gains in life expectancy at birth could be obtained by the elimination or even partial reduction of CVD and MN mortality. When working life (15-64 years) is considered, the relative importance of the causes changes. The elimination of accidents and AIDS would result in increased life expectancy longer than that associated with a 50% reduction in CVD. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study provide useful information which could contribute to a more effective allocation of resources for research activity and public health programmes.
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