© 1998 Oxford University Press
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Projected mortality from lung cancer in South Korea, 1980–2004
aDepartment of Epidemiology and Disease Control. Yonsel University Graduate School of Health Science and Management Po Box 8044, Seoul Korea
bDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Yonsel University College of Medicine Seoul Korea
cWelch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, The Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions Baltmore, MD, USA
BACKGROUND: In recent years, mortality from lung cancer has increased rapidly in Korea, a South East Asian country with a high prevalence of smoking. The objectives of this study are to examine how age, period, and birth cohort effects contributed to trends in lung cancer mortality in Korea 1980–1994, and to predict lung cancer mortality rates for 1995–2004.
METHODS: Age- and sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates were obtained from annual reports of the National Office of Statistics in Korea. Poisson regression models were used to estimate age, period and cohort effects.
RESULTS: Among men, age-adjusted annual mortality rates from lung cancer (per 100 000) increased from 3.7 in 1980 to 17.8 in 1994; corresponding rates for women were 1.4 and 7.0. As age increased, mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly in men than in women. Within the same age group, the mortality of younger cohorts was higher than older cohorts. The average annual number of lung cancer deaths projected for the years 2000–2004 among men and women will be 15 441 and 3572 respectively, while the average annual age-adjusted mortality rates from lung cancer (per 100 000) will be 65.4 for men and t5.1 for women. These rates correspond to 17.7- and 10.7-fold increases over the 1980 mortality rates in men and women, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: These results, in conjunction with trends in tobacco consumption, indicate that mortality from lung cancer in both men and women will increase substantially through the early part of the 21st century in Korea.
Keywords Lung cancer, age-period-cohort analysis, tobacco consumption
Accepted 28 July 1997
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