International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 26, 924-932, Copyright © 1997 by International Epidemiological Association
R Capocaccia, R De Angelis, L Frova, G Gatta, M Sant, A Micheli, F Berrino, E Conti, L Gafa, L Roncucci and A Verdecchia
BACKGROUND: Occurrence of and prognosis for tumours of the colon and rectum
are thought to be changing rapidly due to simultaneous changes in risk
factor prevalence, early diagnosis and treatment. In this paper time trends
of morbidity, survival and mortality for colorectal cancer during the
period 1970-1990 are estimated and analysed. METHODS: Mortality trends were
obtained from official death certificates. Relative survival rates were
computed from population-based cancer registries. Incidence and prevalence
rates were estimated from mortality and survival data. RESULTS: Incidence
rates were increasing during the period considered, with a lower rate of
increase for the youngest birth cohorts. Relative survival rates of both
colon and rectum cancers were higher for women, and for younger age groups,
and were positively associated with period of diagnosis. No significant
survival difference among the cancer registries used was found. A total of
about 155,000 prevalent cases, 40% of which had been diagnosed > or = 7
years before, were estimated in the Italian population for the year 1990.
Mortality rates were slightly increasing for men and stable for women.
Projections of colorectal cancer trends to the year 2000 indicate major
expected rises in both incidence and prevalence. CONCLUSION: Colorectal
cancer represents a problem of growing impact for health services in Italy.
This conclusion can probably be extended to many developed countries.
ARTICLES
Estimation and projections of colorectal cancer trends in Italy
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Rome, Italy.
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