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International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 26, 501-507, Copyright © 1997 by International Epidemiological Association
P Jordan, D Brubacher, S Tsugane, Y Tsubono, KF Gey and U Moser
BACKGROUND: Death rates of particular categories in epidemiological studies
are often based on a small number of occurrences which can be well
described by a Poisson distribution. METHOD: We applied this model for the
analysis of a multi-centre study in five Japanese counties where the death
rates of stomach cancer (ICD-9 code 151) in four age groups are known. In
our example some covariates of the cases (e.g. plasma lycopene levels) are
unknown values and are estimated from a randomly chosen collective.
Therefore these values are subject to a sampling error. The inclusion of
errors in variables (e-i-v) into the statistical model can adequately
describe such a situation. The model is estimated in a Bayesian framework
by means of resampling techniques. RESULTS: Based on the posterior
distribution of the parameters the relative risk of stomach cancer is 0.46
(95% confidence interval: 0.23- 0.79) comparing the maximum of the
population medians of lycopene with the minimum. The estimated
overdispersion is close to zero indicating only minor interference with
other possible explanatory variables. In addition, we show that inclusion
of e-i-v can give more accurate estimates of the parameters even from small
sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate statistical methods allow the
accurate estimation of relative risks from small sample sizes and from low
number of cases. Lycopene plasma levels are good predictors for stomach
cancer.
ARTICLES
Modelling of mortality data from a multi-centre study in Japan by means of Poisson regression with error in variables
Department of Vitamin Research, Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd., Basel, Switzerland.
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