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© 1994 Oxford University Press

other

Sensitivity, Specificity and predictive Values of Health Service Based Indicators for the Surveillance of Influenza A Epidemics

PHILIPPE QUENEL*, WILLIAM DAB**, CLAUDE HANNOUN{dagger} and JEAN MARIE COHEN{ddagger}

* Réseau National de Santé Publique 14 rue du Val d'Osne, 94415 Saint-Maurice cedex, France
** Ecole Nationale de la Santé Publique, Hôpital National de Saint-Maurice 14 rue du Val d'Osne, 94410 Saint-Maurice, France
{dagger} Centre National de Réféence de la Grippe, Institut Pasteur 5 rue du docteur Roux, 75014 Paris, France
{ddagger} Open-Rome, 39 rue Saint-Antoine, 75004 Paris, France

BackgroundsThe Regional lnfluenza Surveillance Group (GROG) is a French surveillance network set up in 1984. It collects virological specimens and health service based indicators on a weekly basis. Our aim was to assess the predictive value of the health service based indicators for the detection of influenza A epidemics.

MethodsVirological data were used as a gold standard for defining the epidemics. For each health service based indicator, a statistical threshold was used as a test for the identification of epidemic weeks. Finally, an epidemiological criterion was defined in order to improve the specificity and the speed of detection of outbreaks.

ResultsHealth service based indicators have a positive predictive value of around 0.80. They also advance the detection of outbreaks by between 1 and 4 weeks.

ConclusionsThese indicators are easy to collect and are useful for the surveillance of influenza epidemics. Such a system is the prerequisite for the rational use of preventive tools.

Received 1 December 1993


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