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© 1992 Oxford University Press

research-article

The Probability of Progression to AIDS in a Cohort of Male Sexual Contacts of Men with HIV Disease

V T FAREWELL*,**, R A COATES**,{dagger}, M M FANNING{dagger}, D K MACFADDEN{dagger},{ddagger}, S E READ{dagger},{xi}, F A SHEPHERD{dagger} and C A STRUTHERS*

*Departments of Statistics and Actuarial Science and Health Studies, University of Waterloo Canada, N2L 3GI
**Departments of Preventative Medicine and Biostalistics, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto Ontario, Canada M5S 1A8
{dagger}Department of Immunology, University of Toronto Ontario, Canada M5S 1A8
{ddagger}Department of Pediatrics, University of Toronto University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 1A8
{xi}Faculty of Madicne, University of Toronto Ontario, Canada M5S 1A8

Farewell V T (Departments of Statistics and Actuarial Science and Health Studies, University of Waterloo, Canada), Coates A A, Fanning M M, MacFadden D K, Read S E, Shepherd F A and Struthers C A. The probability of progres sions to AIDS in a cohort of male sexual contacts of men with HIV disease. International Journal of Epidemiology 1992; 21: 131–135.

In a cohort of 249 male sexual contacts of men with AIDS or an AIDS-related condition (ARC), 143 cohort members were seropositive on enrollment and 16 seroconverted during follow-up. A logistic Weibull mixture model was used to estimate the probability of progression to AIDS after HIV infection when infection was assumed to occur during the period of sexual contact with the primary case. Forty cohort members developed AIDS while under study. It appears that at least 50% of men with HIV disease will progress to AIDS and that the best estimate of this probability lies anywhere in the interval 70% to 100%.

Received 1 July 1991


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