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International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 19, S73-S78, Copyright © 1990 by International Epidemiological Association

ARTICLES

Simulation model of lung cancer incidence related to smoking and radon daughter exposure

JA Stolwijk and PF Canny
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510.

In recent years, the residential exposure to radon daughters has become a cause for concern as a contributing factor for lung cancer. In order to evaluate the population's risk consequences of different interpretations of the results of epidemiological studies in cohorts of uranium miners, a simulation model has been formulated. In the model, a defined population is generated as a set of individuals with a distribution of characteristics and exposures as they are known to exist in the defined population. The risk for each individual of being diagnosed with lung cancer in the next year can be determined, based on whatever interpretation is being evaluated. The risk can then be translated into an annual number of cases, and suitable controls can be identified as well. Both cases and controls have their individual risk factors of radon daughter exposure and history of cigarette smoking, and it is possible to subject these cases and controls to statistical analyses appropriate to case-control studies. This analysis can be used to see to what extent the original risk equation can be retrieved, and to what extent other risk formulations can be rejected. The simulation model can be used to evaluate conclusions drawn from prior epidemiological studies, as well as for evaluations of the effectiveness of designs for proposed studies.
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