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© 1988 Oxford University Press

research-article

An Assessment of the use of Bayes' Theorem for Forecasting in Public Health: the Case of Epidemic Meningitis in China

GUANG ZENG, Assistant Director for Science*, STEPHEN B THACKER**, ZHEN HU, Director of Meningitis Division{dagger}, XIUJIN LAI{ddagger} and GUIKUN WU{ddagger}

*Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine, Peking, China
**Center for Environmental Health and Injury Control, Centers for Disease Control Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
{dagger}Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine
{ddagger}Beijing Anti-epidemic Station China

A mathematical model based upon Bayes' Theorem (BT) was used to forecast the occurrence of epidemic cerebrciplnal meningitis (ECM) in ten communities in North China. Reports of ECM from each ten-day period during the meningitis season and records of special population movement during 1960–82 were analysed to establish forecast models. Calibration, split-sample, random-sample selection, as well as actual forecast tests, were used to-check the efficiency of the models. For all the testa, the theoretical occurrence of ECM forecast by the BT method was compared with the observational data. Since the BT method offers efficiency and convenience, it is recommended for use in planning for the prevention and control of ECM in China

Revised 1 December 1987


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