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IJE Advance Access originally published online on August 1, 2007
International Journal of Epidemiology 2007 36(4):712-713; doi:10.1093/ije/dym153
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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2007; all rights reserved.

Commentary: Epidemiology and futurology—why did Rothman get it wrong?

Cesar G Victora

Universidade Federal de Pelotas, CP 464-96001-970 Pelotas, RS, Brazil.

E-mail: cvictora@terra.com.br

Accepted 8 May 2007

The first 10% of the full text of this article appears below.

Ken Rothman is a household name for epidemiologists all over the world. The appearance of his book ‘Modern Epidemiology’1 in the mid-1980s consolidated his reputation as a major thinker in our discipline. I remember finding his book truly inspirational when I first read it as a junior epidemiologist.

Rothman's commentary on ‘The rise and fall of Epidemiology, 1950–2000 A.D.’,2 however, made many epidemiologists worry. This paper, published in 1981, reads as if it had been written in the beginning of the 21st century, for presentation at the ‘John Graunt Literary Society’ at Harvard in 2004, pretending to look back at the downfall of our discipline.

. . . [Full Text of this Article]


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Int. J. Epidemiol., October 1, 2008; 37(5): 1193 - 1193.
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