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IJE Advance Access originally published online on May 27, 2004
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International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 33, Number 3, pp. 456-457
IJE vol.33 no.3 © International Epidemiological Association 2004; all rights reserved.

Commentary

Commentary: The HRT story: vindication of old epidemiological theory

Jan P Vandenbroucke

Department of Clinical Epidemioloy, Leiden University Medical Centre, Bldg 1 C9-P, 2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands. E-mail: J.P.Vandenbroucke@lumc.nl

The first 10% of the full text of this article appears below.

In 1995, a long time before any result of any randomized controlled trial would be known, I wrote that about half of the alleged 35–45% reduction of myocardial infarction with hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in observational studies would not be real.1 Still, I should confess that the total reversal of the effect—a slight increase of myocardial infarction in the first years of use—took me also by surprise.

Why was I so certain that a large part of the seeming protection from myocardial . . . [Full Text of this Article]


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