International Journal of Epidemiology 2001;30:957-958
© International Epidemiological Association 2001
Point-Counterpoint |
Commentary: Prior specification of hypotheses: cause or just a correlate of informative studies?
Department of Epidemiology, Campus Box #7400, University of North Carolina School of Public Health, Chapel Hill, NC 275997400, USA. E-mail: david_savitz@unc.edu
Published epidemiological studies are prone to spurious positive findings. This is not just an issue bearing on the discipline's credibility to outsiders but a fundamental methodological concern. Epidemiologists must accept the challenge to improve research methods, publish findings regardless of their implications, and objectively appraise the validity of our results and those of our colleagues. Results are often dichotomized as positive or negative, despite the loss of quantitative information resulting from this practice. The aetiology of false positive reports is surely multifactorial. Some of this falls to the media and the public for overinterpretation. Some results from the exuberance of investigators who advertise their most surprising, dramatic findings, despite the fact that results that run counter to the conventional wisdom are most likely to be erroneous. Human beings (not just
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