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International Journal of Epidemiology 2001;30:678-683
© International Epidemiological Association 2001

Reiterations

Death-rates in Great Britain and Sweden. Some general regularities and their significance*

WO Kermacka, AG McKendrickb and PL McKinlayc

a Chemist to the Research Laboratory of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh.
b Superintendent of the Laboratory.
c Medical Officer (Statistics) of the Department of Health for

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.

The object of this paper is to draw attention to certain regularities in the vital statistics of Great Britain, and to indicate their possible significance in interpreting the past and predicting the future. For purposes of comparison the vital statistics of Sweden have been examined from a similar point of view, and it will be shown that corresponding regularities seem to exist, though partly obscured by some influence the nature of which we are not in a position to identify.

The raw material of this investigation consisted of the specific death-rates at each period for England and Wales from 1845,1 for Scotland from 1860,2 and for Sweden from 1751,3 these being the earliest periods for which reliable statistics are available. As the effects which it is intended to investigate are the general tendencies, and as emphasis is not being laid on small variations, it has been considered sufficient to use . . . [Full Text of this Article]

Relative mortalities in Great Britain

Interpretation of the regularities

Prediction of future mortalities

Relative mortalities in Sweden

Discussion

Practical inferences

Conclusions


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