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© 1979 Oxford University Press

research-article

Cohort Analysis of Lung Cancer in the Netherlands

N M VAN DER HOFF1

1 Former Medical Registrar, Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Voorburg, Netherlands. Present address Peeskesweg 3, Beek Gem., Bergh, Holland.

A cohort analysis of lung cancer mortality in the Netherlands from 1936–1974 is presented. Apart from small corrections, age-specific lung cancer mortality rates can be expressed as the product of a cohort (generation) factor and an age factor. The cohort factors increase until the 1930 birth cohort, after which there is a rapid decline. The age-risk factors increase smoothly with age. Age-specific incidence curves of past and future years will follow the curve of the age-risk factors provided that the cohort-risk factors are unchanging. The method can be applied to other chronic diseases.

Received 13 July 1978


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