IJE Advance Access originally published online on September 3, 2007
International Journal of Epidemiology 2007 36(5):1038-1046; doi:10.1093/ije/dym121
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Solid cancer incidence and low-dose-rate radiation exposures in the Techa River cohort: 1956–2002
1 Epidemiology Laboratory, Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine, Chelyabinsk, Russia.
2 Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL USA.
3 Biophysics Laboratory, Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine, Chelyabinsk, Russia.
4 Hirosoft International Corporation, Eureka, CA USA.
5 Clinical Physiology Laboratory, Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine, Chelyabinsk, Russia.
* Corresponding author. 1335 H St. Eureka, CA 95501, USA. E-mail: preston{at}hirosoft.net
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Abstract |
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Background This is the first analysis of solid cancer incidence in the Techa River cohort, a general population of men and women of all ages who received chronic low-dose rate exposures from environmental radiation releases associated with the Soviet nuclear weapons programme. This cohort provides one of the few opportunities to evaluate long-term human health risks from low-dose radiation exposures.
Methods Cancer incidence rates in this cohort were analysed using excess relative risk (ERR) models. The analyses make use of individualized dose estimates that take into account residence history, age and other factors. Cases are identified on the basis of continuing, active follow-up of mortality and cancer incidence.
Results Based on 1836 solid cancer cases with 446 588 person years accrued over 47 years of follow-up, solid cancer incidence rates were found to increase with dose and about 3% of the cases were attributable to radiation exposure. The ERR was 1.0/Gy (P = 0.004 95% CI (0.3; 1.9) in a linear dose-response model. There was no significant non-linearity in the dose response and no indication of effect modification by gender, ethnicity, attained age or age at first exposure.
Conclusions The Techa River cohort provides strong evidence that low-dose, low-dose rate exposures lead to significant increases in solid cancer risks that appear to be linear in dose. The results do not suggest that risks associated with low-dose rate exposures are less than those seen following acute exposures such as were received by atomic bomb survivors.
Keywords Cohort studies, carcinogens, environmental, risk assessment, cancer, radiation-induced
Accepted 8 May 2007
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