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IJE Advance Access originally published online on May 17, 2007
International Journal of Epidemiology 2007 36(4):900-906; doi:10.1093/ije/dym066
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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2007; all rights reserved.

Breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine 1963–2002: an age-period-cohort analysis

Lale Hirte1, Ellen Nolte1,*, Chris Bain2 and Martin McKee1

1 European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition, London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
2 School of Population Health and Queensland Institute of Medical Research, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.

* Corresponding author. E-mail: ellen.nolte{at}lshtm.ac.uk


  Abstract

Objective To determine the reasons for the steady increase in breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine.

Methods Age-period-cohort analysis, supplemented by analysis of historical fertility trends.

Results Mortality from breast cancer has risen steadily in both countries over the past 40 years, although faster in Russia than in Ukraine. There are strong birth cohort effects, which are consistent with known changes in fertility. Death rates were highest among those born in the first half of the 20th century, declining among those born after the 1950s. There has been a decline in mortality among younger women since the mid 1990s, which may reflect improvements in treatment.

Conclusion The increase in breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine can largely be explained by known changes in fertility, while recent changes may reflect changes in treatment. Observed trends suggest that death rates from female breast cancer in the two countries are likely to stabilize or even decline in the future.

Keywords Breast cancer mortality, age-period-cohort analysis, Russia, Ukraine

Accepted 12 March 2007


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