IJE Advance Access originally published online on August 2, 2005
International Journal of Epidemiology 2006 35(2):427-435; doi:10.1093/ije/dyi150
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Mortality |
Season of death and birth predict patterns of mortality in Burkina Faso
1 University of Heidelberg, Germany, Department of Tropical Hygiene and Public Health, Im Neuenheimer Feld 324, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
2 Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, BP 02, Nouna, Burkina Faso
* Corresponding author. E-mail: gisela.kynast-wolf{at}urz.uni-heidelberg.de
Background Mortality in developing countries has multiple causes. Some of these causes are linked to climatic conditions that differ over the year. Data on season-specific mortality are sparse.
Methods We analysed longitudinal data from a population of 
35 000 individuals in Burkina Faso. During the observation period 1993–2001, a total number of 4098 deaths were recorded. The effect of season on mortality was investigated separately by age group as (i) date of death and (ii) date of birth. For (i), age-specific death rates by month of death were calculated. The relative effect of each month was assessed using the floating relative risk method and modelled continuously. For (ii), age-specific death rates by month of birth were calculated and the mean date of birth among deaths and survivors was compared.
Results Overall mortality was found to be consistently higher during the dry season (November to May). The pattern was seen in all age groups except in infants where a peak was seen around the end of the rainy season. In infants we found a strong association between high mortality and being born during the time period September to February. No effect was seen for the other age groups.
Conclusions The observed excess mortality in young children at or around the end of the rainy season can be explained by the effects of infectious diseases and, in particular, malaria during this time period. In contrast, the excess mortality seen in older children and adults during the early dry season remains largely unexplained although specific infectious diseases such as meningitis and pneumonia are possible main causes. The association between high infant mortality and being born at around the end of the rainy season is probably explained by most of the malaria deaths in areas of high transmission intensity occurring in the second half of infancy.
Keywords Africa, Burkina Faso, infant mortality, childhood mortality, adult mortality, malaria, rainy season, dry season, demographic surveillance
Accepted 5 July 2005
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