Skip Navigation


IJE Advance Access originally published online on January 13, 2005
International Journal of Epidemiology 2005 34(1):46-52; doi:10.1093/ije/dyh374
This Article
Right arrow Full Text Freely available
Right arrow FREE Full Text (PDF) Freely available
Right arrow All Versions of this Article:
34/1/46    most recent
dyh374v1
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in ISI Web of Science
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrow Search for citing articles in:
ISI Web of Science (16)
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Chadeau-Hyam, M.
Right arrow Articles by Alpérovitch, A.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Chadeau-Hyam, M.
Right arrow Articles by Alpérovitch, A.
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?

IJE vol.34 no.1 © International Epidemiological Association 2005; all rights reserved.

Article

Risk of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in France

Marc Chadeau-Hyam* and Annick Alpérovitch

INSERM U 360, Hôpital La Salpêtrière, 75651 Paris Cedex 13, France

* Corresponding author. E-mail: marc.chadeau{at}chups.jussieu.fr

Background France has the second highest number of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (vCJD) cases worldwide. Imports of bovine carcasses from the UK probably constituted the main source of exposure of the French population to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent. Meat products consumed whilst visiting the UK have also been considered as a possible source of exposure.

Methods We estimated the number of future vCJD cases in France using a simulation approach. Both the distribution of the vCJD incubation period and the age-dependent susceptibility to the BSE agent were estimated from UK data. The French epidemic was simulated by gender and birth-cohort from data on the infectivity of UK bovine tissues and simulations of the French consumption of infected beef products. We also used data on travel to the UK between 1980 and 1995.

Results We predicted 33 future cases of vCJD: 12 in the 1940–69 birth-cohort and 21 in the post-1969 birth-cohort. No case was predicted in the pre-1940 cohort. Based on our model, simulated vCJD cases occurred later in the older (1940–69) than in the younger cohort (post-1969). Age at onset was stable in the post-1969 cohort and increased in the older cohort. The model predicted a small excess of male patients. No case was attributed to travels in the UK.

Conclusions This modelling confirms that a large vCJD epidemic in France is very unlikely. Since France (where 60% of the total British exports of bovine carcasses were exported) has been highly exposed to the BSE agent, our results are reassuring for most countries worldwide.

Keywords Epidemiology, vCJD, France, predictions, simulation, exposure to BSE agent, birth-cohort

Accepted 6 October 2004


Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us    What's this?


This article has been cited by other articles:


Home page
 Int J EpidemiolHome page
R. Will
Commentary: The risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease: reassurance and uncertainty
Int. J. Epidemiol., February 1, 2005; 34(1): 52 - 53.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Disclaimer: Please note that abstracts for content published before 1996 were created through digital scanning and may therefore not exactly replicate the text of the original print issues. All efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, but the Publisher will not be held responsible for any remaining inaccuracies. If you require any further clarification, please contact our Customer Services Department.