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IJE Advance Access originally published online on August 27, 2004
International Journal of Epidemiology 2005 34(1):215-220; doi:10.1093/ije/dyh299
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IJE vol.34 no.1 © International Epidemiological Association 2004; all rights reserved.

Education

Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it

Adrian G Barnett1, Jolieke C van der Pols1 and Annette J Dobson1

1 School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, Brisbane QLD 4006, Australia

Correspondence: Adrian Barnett, School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4006, Australia. E-mail: a.barnett{at}uq.edu.au

Background Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean.

Methods We give some examples of the phenomenon, and discuss methods to overcome it at the design and analysis stages of a study.

Results The effect of RTM in a sample becomes more noticeable with increasing measurement error and when follow-up measurements are only examined on a sub-sample selected using a baseline value.

Conclusions RTM is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change. Its effect can be alleviated through better study design and use of suitable statistical methods.

Keywords Regression to the mean, repeated measures, intervention, clinical trials, observational studies, longitudinal studies, statistics, epidemiological research design

Accepted 1 July 2004


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