IJE Advance Access originally published online on January 12, 2005
International Journal of Epidemiology 2005 34(1):160-165; doi:10.1093/ije/dyh370
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IJE vol.34 no.1 © International Epidemiological Association 2005; all rights reserved.
Article |
Estimation of the risk of transmission of hepatitis C between spouses in Egypt based on seroprevalence data
1 Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
2 National Hepatology and Tropical Medicine Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt
3 Assiut University Cancer Institute, Assiut, Egypt
4 Center for Field and Applied Research, Qalubyia, Egypt
5 Assiut University Faculty of Medicine, Assiut, Egypt
6 Present address: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, MD, USA
* Corresponding author. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, University of Maryland, Baltimore, 660 W. Redwood Street, Baltimore, MD 21201-1596, USA. E-mail: lmagder{at}epi.umaryland.edu
Background Transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) between spouses could be due to sexual contact, sharing needles, or other routes. There is uncertainty regarding the degree to which HCV is transmitted between spouses.
Methods Data from a 1997 cross-sectional serological survey of HCV in two communities in Egypt were used to estimate the risk of transmission between spouses by simultaneously modelling the probabilities of community acquisition and spousal transmission of HCV as functions of known predictors.
Results We estimate that the probability of wife-to-husband transmission was 34% (95% CI: 15–49%) and 10% (95% CI: 0–26%) for anti-HCV-positive wives with and without detectable HCV RNA, respectively. The probability of husband-to-wife transmission was estimated to be 3% (95% CI: 0–13%) and 0% (95% CI: 0–9%) for husbands with and without detectable HCV RNA, respectively, at the time of the survey. There was moderate evidence that the probability of wife-to-husband transmission differed from that of husband-to-wife transmission (P = 0.076), and there was greater risk of transmission from those with detectable RNA at the time of the survey (P = 0.046). We estimate that 6% of those infected acquired HCV from their spouse.
Conclusion Our study results support the possibility that HCV is transmitted between spouses in Egypt. Further research is needed to identify the exact routes of transmission so that preventive measures can be instituted.
Keywords Disease transmission, Egypt, hepatitis C virus, partner studies, sexually transmitted diseases
Accepted 14 September 2004
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