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IJE Advance Access originally published online on July 8, 2004
International Journal of Epidemiology 2004 33(6):1337-1344; doi:10.1093/ije/dyh274
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IJE vol.33 no.6 © International Epidemiological Association 2004; all rights reserved.

Article

Multilevel modelling and malaria: a new method for an old disease

F Mauny1,3, JF Viel1, P Handschumacher2 and B Sellin3

1 Department of Public Health, Biostatistics and Epidemiology Unit, Faculty of Medicine, 2, place Saint Jacques, 25030 Besançon Cedex, France
2 Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Institut de Géographie, 3, rue de l'Argonne, 67083 Strasbourg Cedex, France
3 Programme RAMSE, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, BP 434, Antananarivo, Madagascar

Correspondence: Dr Frederic Mauny, Department of Public Health, Biostatistics and Epidemiology Unit, Faculty of Medicine, 2, place Saint Jacques, 25030 Besançon Cedex, France. E-mail: frederic.mauny{at}ufc-chu.univ-fcomte.fr

Background Malaria is influenced by a web of individual and ecological factors, i.e. factors relating to people and relating to environment. For a long time analysing these factors concurrently has raised statistical problems. Multilevel modelling provides a new attractive solution, which is still uncommon in tropical medicine.

Methods Using an actual data set of 3864 individuals from 38 villages of the Highland Madagascar, a two-level modelling process is presented. Individual malaria parasitaemia is modelled step by step according to age (individual factor), altitude, and DDT indoor house-spraying status (village factors).

Results The hierarchical organization of a data set in levels, fixed and random effects, and cross-level interactions are considered. Accurate estimations of standard errors, impact of unknown or unmeasured variables quantified and accounted for through random effects, are the highlighted advantages of multilevel modelling.

Conclusion While not denying the importance of understanding an aetiological chain, the authors recommend an increased use of multilevel modelling, mainly to identify accurately ecological targets for public health policy.

Keywords Multilevel model, malaria, individual variable, ecological variable, Madagascar

Accepted 2 June 2004


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