International Journal of Epidemiology 2000;29:1076-1084
© International Epidemiological Association 2000
Human T-cell lymphotropic virus testing of blood donors in Norway: a cost-effect model
a Department of Population Health Sciences,
b Department of Virology, National Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Reprint requests: Hein Stigum, Department of Population Health Sciences, National Institute of Public Health, PO Box 4404 Torshov, 0403 Oslo, Norway. E-mail: Hein.Stigum{at}Folkehelsa.no
Background Human T-cell lymphotropic virus type I and II (HTLV-I and II) are human retroviruses that can be transmitted by transfusion of whole blood. An HTLV-I infection is associated with adult T-cell leukaemia (ATL) and with tropical spastic paraparesis (TSP). Antibody tests from 5.5 million European blood donors have shown that the HTLV prevalence is low, ranging from 0 to 0.02%. This paper examines costs and effects associated with the intervention of testing all new blood donors for HTLV.
Methods A mathematical model was used to calculate the number of cases prevented by the intervention. For a given prevalence of HTLV in the blood donor population, the model calculates the number of recipients infected by transfusion, and the number of partners and offspring that will in turn be infected. The model then calculates the number of subjects with disease due to HTLV-I infection and the number of deaths from disease. From these numbers the measures of cost and effect are calculated.
Results Testing all new blood donors for HTLV is calculated to cost US$ 9.2 million per life saved, or US$ 420 000 per quality adjusted life year gained by the intervention, when the HTLV prevalence among donors is 1 per 100 000. When the prevalence among donors is 10 per 100 000 the intervention will cost US$ 0.9 million per life saved, or US$ 41 000 per quality adjusted life year gained. The same analysis shows that testing blood donors for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) saves money when the HIV prevalence among donors is above 0.7 per 100 000.
Conclusion For Norway, studies suggest a willingness to pay to save a statistical life of approximately US$ 1.2 million. The costs fall under this value when the number of infected persons is 
8 per 100 000 donors. The results are uncertain because of the uncertainty in HTLV infection and disease parameters.
Keywords Cost effect analysis, cost utility analysis, HTLV, HIV, mathematical model, blood donors, transfusion
Accepted 8 May 2000
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