International Journal of Epidemiology 2000;29:274-279
© International Epidemiological Association 2000
Seasonal variation in mortality in Scotland
a Public Health Research Unit, 1 Lilybank Gardens, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
b Department of Geography and Topographic Science, East Quadrangle, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
c Department of General Practice, 4 Lancaster Crescent, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Reprint requests to: Islay Gemmell, MRC Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, 4 Lilybank Gardens, Glasgow G12 8RZ, UK.
Background Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognized for many years. This study assesses seasonal variation in mortality in Scotland between 1981 and 1993 and considers its association with socioeconomic status and outdoor temperature.
Methods Lagged Poisson regression analysis of numbers of deaths and average weekly temperature with adjustment for serial autocorrelation and influenza epidemics.
Results There was significant seasonal variation in weekly death rates with a difference of about 30% between a summer trough and a winter peak. This variation was principally attributable to respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease and coronary artery disease. Seasonal variation in mortality fell from around 38% in 1981– 1983 to around 26% in 1991–1993. There was no clear evidence of a relationship between socioeconomic status and seasonal mortality, however the extent of the fall in seasonal variation was greater in deprived areas than in affluent areas. Overall, a 1°C decrease in mean temperature was associated with a 1% increase in deaths one week later. The lag in this relationship varied by cause of death and underlying temperature.
Conclusions Seasonal variations in mortality and the relationship between temperature and mortality are a significant public health problem in Scotland. It is likely that the strength of this relationship is a result of the population being unable to protect themselves adequately from the effects of temperature rather than the effects of temperature itself.
Keywords Seasonal, mortality, temperature, deprivation
Accepted 20 October 1999
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