International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 28, 1149-1155, Copyright © 1999 by International Epidemiological Association
Y Matsuyama, S Hashimoto, S Ichikawa, Y Nakamura, T Kidokoro, T Umeda, M Kamakura, S Kimura, K Fukutomi, C Ikeda and M Kihara
BACKGROUND: In recent years a decline in the number of new AIDS cases has
been observed in several industrialized countries. It is important to know
whether these recent trends observed in North America and Europe are also
occurring in Japan. METHODS: The number of people reported with HIV and
AIDS by nationality, route of infection, and sex was calculated based on
the HIV/AIDS surveillance data available in Japan through December 1997.
The effect of reporting delay, which was defined as those HIV and AIDS
cases reported in the calendar year following diagnosis, on the trends was
examined. The coverage rate in reporting HIV cases was estimated as the
ratio of the reported AIDS cases with prior report as an HIV-positive to
the total number of reported AIDS cases. RESULTS: The cumulative number of
reported cases of HIV among Japanese and non-Japanese residents of Japan up
to the end of 1997 were 1,300 and 1,190, respectively. The cumulative
number of reported cases of AIDS among Japanese and non-Japanese up to the
end of 1997 were 758 and 298, respectively. The number of reported cases of
HIV among Japanese was found to be still increasing, with the major
contribution from male cases. The increasing trend in the number of
reported AIDS cases among Japanese began to slow in 1996 and 1997. The
number of reported cases of HIV among non-Japanese residents of Japan
peaked in 1992, and has decreased since then, and remained constant after
1994. In contrast, the number of reported AIDS cases among these
non-Japanese tended to increase gradually. There was a slight reporting
delay for people with HIV and AIDS. The estimated coverage rate in
reporting HIV cases tended to decrease in 1996 and 1997 (1/7.2, 1/10.2,
respectively). We point out several reasons for this recent decline and
suggest the possibility of an ostensible decline in the estimates.
CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that the number of people with HIV among Japanese
has continued to increase, and that the increase in the number of AIDS
cases among Japanese is now slowing.
Trends in HIV and AIDS based on HIV/AIDS surveillance data in Japan
Biostatistics/Epidemiology and Preventive Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences and Nursing, University of Tokyo, Japan. matuyama@epistat.m.u-tokyo.ac.jp
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