International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 28, 932-940, Copyright © 1999 by International Epidemiological Association
H Scherb, E Weigelt and I Bruske-Hohlfeld
BACKGROUND: Numerous investigations have been carried out concerning the
possible impact of the Chernobyl accident, in April 1986, on the prevalence
of anomalies at birth and on perinatal mortality. The accident has
contaminated Eastern Europe more heavily than Western Europe. If there was
an effect of the radioactive contamination on perinatal mortality or
stillbirth proportions one would expect to find it more pronounced in
Eastern Europe as compared to Western Europe. We therefore studied
long-term time trends in European stillbirth proportions. METHODS: Linear
logistic regression was applied to model the time trends in stillbirth
proportions. Dummy variables were used to account for effects that can be
associated with certain years or locations. A synoptic logistic regression
model is suggested for the western, central, and eastern parts of Europe.
RESULTS: There is a marked differential effect in the long-term stillbirth
time trends between Western Europe (Belgium, France, Great Britain,
Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain), Central Europe (Austria,
Denmark, Germany, Italy, Norway, Switzerland), and Eastern Europe
represented by four countries (Greece, Hungary, Poland, Sweden). In
contrast to the western and central European trends, the eastern European
trend exhibits an absolute increase of the stillbirth proportion in 1986 as
compared with 1985 and an apparent upward shift of the whole trend line
from 1986 on. CONCLUSION: Our results are in contrast to those of many
analyses of the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident and
contradict the present radiobiological knowledge. As we are dealing with
highly aggregated data, other causes or artefacts may explain the observed
effects. Hence, the findings should be interpreted with caution and further
independent evidence should be sought.
ARTICLES
European stillbirth proportions before and after the Chernobyl accident
GSF-Forschungszentrum fur Umwelt und Gesundheit, Institut fur Biomathematik und Biometrie, Oberscheissheim, Germany. scherb@gsf.de
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