International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 28, 836-840, Copyright © 1999 by International Epidemiological Association
JA Van Leeuwen, D Waltner-Toews, T Abernathy, B Smit and M Shoukri
BACKGROUND: Nitrate and atrazine are two chemicals that are heavily used in
certain sectors of agriculture. They are suspected to be associated with
the development of certain types of tumours. METHODS: Existing data were
obtained on the incidence of specific types of cancers, contamination of
drinking water with atrazine and nitrate, and related agricultural
practices for the 40 ecodistricts in the province of Ontario. The data were
merged into a georelational database for geographical and statistical
analyses. Weighted (by population size) least squares regression analyses
were conducted while controlling for confounding socioeconomic and
lifestyle factors. Maximum likelihood spatial error models were estimated
when least square regression error terms were found to be spatially
autocorrelated using the Moran's I statistic. RESULTS: Atrazine
contamination levels (range 50-649 ng/l, maximum acceptable concentration
[MAC] = 60000 ng/l) were positively associated (P < 0.05) with stomach
cancer incidence and negatively associated with colon cancer incidence.
Nitrate levels, (range 0-91 mg/l, MAC = 10 mg/l) were negatively associated
with stomach cancer incidence. CONCLUSION: The associations found at the
ecodistrict level, both positive and negative, if confirmed by other
studies, raise serious questions about maximum allowable limits for
atrazine, as well as possibilities of complex trade-offs among disease
outcomes, and interactions of biophysical and social mechanisms which might
explain them. Although the negative associations appear to have no direct
biological explanations, such counter-intuitive outcomes may occur in
complex systems where social and biological variables interact.
ARTICLES
Associations between stomach cancer incidence and drinking water contamination with atrazine and nitrate in Ontario (Canada) agroecosystems, 1987-1991
Department of Health Management, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Canada.
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