International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 28, 776-781, Copyright © 1999 by International Epidemiological Association
CJ Struchiner, LM de Almeida, RS de Azevedo and E Massad
BACKGROUND: To assess the impact of water sanitation and sewage disposal,
part of a major environmental control programme in Rio de Janeiro, we
carried out sero-prevalence studies for Hepatitis A virus (HAV) in three
micro-regions in Rio de Janeiro. Each region varied with regard to level of
sanitation. We are interested in assessing the discriminating power of
age-specific prevalence curves for HAV as a proxy for improvement in
sanitation. These curves will serve as baseline information to future
planned surveys as the sanitation programme progresses. METHODS: Incidence
rate curves from prevalence data are estimated parametrically via a
Weibull-like survival function, and non-parametrically via maximum
likelihood and monotonic splines. Sera collected from children and adults
in the three areas are used to detect antibodies against HAV through ELISA.
RESULTS: We compare baseline incidence curves at the three sites estimated
by the three methods. We observe a strong negative correlation between
level of sanitation and incidence rates for HAV infection. Incidence
estimates yielded by the parametric and non-parametric approaches tend to
agree at early ages in the microregion showing the best level of sanitation
and to increasingly disagree in the other two. CONCLUSION: Our results
support the choice of HAV as a sentinel disease that is associated with
level of sanitation. We also introduce monotonic splines as a novel non-
parametric approach to estimate incidence from prevalence data. This
approach outperforms current estimating procedures.
ARTICLES
Hepatitis A incidence rate estimates from a pilot seroprevalence survey in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
PROCC/Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
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