Skip Navigation

This Article
Right arrow FREE Full Text (PDF) Freely available
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrow Search for citing articles in:
ISI Web of Science (5)
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Garcia, A
Right arrow Articles by Richardson, S
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Garcia, A
Right arrow Articles by Richardson, S
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?

International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 26, 190-203, Copyright © 1997 by International Epidemiological Association

ARTICLES

Modelling the annual risk of tuberculosis infection

A Garcia, J Maccario and S Richardson
Institut Francais de Recherche Scientifique, Developpement en Cooperation, (ORSTOM), Paris, France.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis has been declining in developed countries for a long time, as a result of the intrinsic epidemiological characteristics of this disease, combined with improvement in the standard of living and more recently the use of antibiotics. In these low prevalence countries, decisions concerning the objectives of tuberculosis programmes have to be taken and the consequences of short term changes in the sanitary situation have to be assessed. METHODS: A deterministic model, without age structure, of the dynamics of pulmonary tuberculosis is proposed. The model extends that of Waaler and is intended to be more suitable for application to developed countries. The flows between seven subgroups of population, based on the natural history of the disease, are modelled and vaccination is taken into account. Values of model parameters and initial prevalences were deduced from published data. RESULTS: As a first step, qualitative comparisons are performed between the model-predicted decline in the annual risk of infection (ARI) and data from the Netherlands tuberculosis survey. Using parameter values suited to France, our model shows that the predicted decline is slower in France than in the Netherlands; a result which tallies with epidemiological observations. Uses of the model as a decision tool are illustrated in two cases, that of ending systematic BCG vaccination and that of a sudden increase in the number of infectious cases.
Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us    What's this?


This article has been cited by other articles:


Home page
 GeneticsHome page
M. M. Tanaka, A. R. Francis, F. Luciani, and S. A. Sisson
Using Approximate Bayesian Computation to Estimate Tuberculosis Transmission Parameters From Genotype Data
Genetics, July 1, 2006; 173(3): 1511 - 1520.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Disclaimer:
Please note that abstracts for content published before 1996 were created through digital scanning and may therefore not exactly replicate the text of the original print issues. All efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, but the Publisher will not be held responsible for any remaining inaccuracies. If you require any further clarification, please contact our Customer Services Department.