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© 1995 Oxford University Press

research-article

The Proportion of Tuberculosis Cases in Tanzania Attributable to Human Immunodeficiency Virus

MAARTEN R A VAN CLEEFF* and H J CHUM{dagger}

* Royal Tropical Institute (KIT), Health and Disease Control Mauritskade 63, 1092 AD Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
{dagger} Ministry of Health & Social Welfare, Tuberculosis Leprosy Central Unit PO Box 9308, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Background. Routine data obtained from the National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Programme (NTLP) of Tanzania have shown a constant increase in the notified number of tuberculosis (TB) cases since 1982. Possible causes include an improved reporting system, improvement in health services after the introduction of short course chemotherapy (SCC), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. This paper examines to what extent the increased TB case detection rate can be attributed to HIV infection, by calculating the population attributable risk for various years.

Method. The prevalence to HIV infection was obtained from data of the National AIDS Control Programme and the relative risk of HIV for developing TB from a case-control study and the literature.

Results. Between 1985 and 1989 the increase was the highest among women aged 15–24 years and men aged 25–34 years; age groups in which HIV prevalence is highest. In the case-control study HIV prevalence among blood donors was 9.4% and among smear-positive pulmonary TB patients 51.6%, giving an odds ratio (OR) of 8.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.4–16.3). For all TB cases the OR was 11.8. In a population with an HIV prevalence of 10%, about 40% of the smear-positive TB patients are attributable to HIV. The excess of TB cases in the entire country between 1982 and 1989 can be attributable to HIV infection. This has implications for TB control and socioeconomic consequences in the country.

Revised 1 September 1994


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