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© 1995 Oxford University Press

research-article

Estimation of the Size of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic due to Blood Transfusion in France

FRANÇOISE LE PONT, DOMINIQUE COSTAGLIOLA, VÉRONIQUE MASSARI and ALAIN-JACQUES VALLERON

B3E, INSERM U263 and SC4, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Institut Federatif Saint Antoine de Recherches sur la Santé (ISARS) Pans, France.

Background This study presents estimates of the number of Individuals contaminated by human Immunodeliciency virus(HIV) via a blood transfusion received in France before the end of 1991 and those who have developed or will develop AIDS.

Methods. The computer simulation modeln takes into account several possible hypotheses conceming the annual number of Infected blood donations collected before the Introduction of HIV screening in August 1985, those collected between August 1985 and December 1991 not exculded by the testing procedure due to the senoconversion perlod, the number of lablie blood components eloeborated from one donation, the 5-year mortality rate of blood reclplents, and the incubation delay.

Results. Rusults reproducing the evolution of the reported annual of transfusion-aasoclated AIDS cases were selected which enabled the estimation of the number of recipients infected (between 3300 and 4300) and of the number of transfusion-associated AIDS cases (between 1600 and 1800) compare with 1300 transfusion-associated AIDS cases reported by June 1993.

Conclusion. This methkology could be used for other countries provided information required the model is available.

Received 1 July 1994


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