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© 1994 Oxford University Press

other

Statistical Modelling and Prediction of Lung Cancer Mortality in the Czech and Slovak Republics, 1960–1999

J REISSIGOVA*, T LUOSTARINEN**, T HAKULINEN**,{dagger} and A KUBIK*

* Institute of Chest Diseases Budinova 67, 18071 Prague 8, Bulovka, Czech Republic
** Finnish Cancer Registry, Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research Helsinki, Finland
{dagger} Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Karolinska Institute Stockholm, Sweden

BackgroundThe aim of the study was to analyse the pattern of lung cancer mortality from 1960 to 1989 and to predict lung cancer mortality for 1990–1999 for males and females aged ≥ 30 years in the Czech and Slovak Republics.

MethodThe mortality pattern of lung cancer was examined and predicted using republic-age-period-cohort models.

ResultsTrends in lung cancer mortality were upward for both sexes over the study period. In the early 1960s, lung cancer mortality in Slovak males was much lower than that in Czech males, but since the late 1960s lung cancer mortality in males increased more rapidly in Slovakia than in the Czech Republic. It was predicted that mortality due to lung cancer in Slovak males would exceed that in Czech males during the last 5 years of the 20th century. Slovak female lung cancer mortality was lower than that for Czech females throughout the study period, and the trends in both republics were similar.

Received 1 December 1993


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