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© 1994 Oxford University Press

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A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of the Impact of HIV Infection on Tuberculosis

MICHAEL SCHULZER*,**, M P RADHAMANI{dagger}, STEFAN GRZYBOWSKI*, EDWIN MAK* and J MARK FITZGERALD*,

* Respiratory Division, Vancouver General Hospital 2775 Heather St., Vancouver BC, Canada
** Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC, Canada
{dagger} Supported by a WHO Travelling Fellowship. Current address: TB Research Institute Madras, India

Reprint requests: Dr J Mark FitzGerald, Respiratory Division, Vancouver General Hospital, 2775 Heather Street, Vancouver, BC, V5Z 1M9 Canada.

A mathematical model is introduced to study the accelerating impact of HIV infection on the incidence rates of tuberculosis (TB) disease. A sexually active population (15–49 years) is followed cross-sectionally over a period of time. Beginning with the year in which HIV infection was probably first present in the population, the model calculates the growing yearly incidence rates of new TB disease in HIV-positive and in HIV-negative individuals. Model equations, derived by an actuarial method, are developed recursively. Input information required for the calculations indudes the age distribution of the study population, pre-HIV annual TB infection rates, annual HIV infection and mortality rates, and estimates of annual TB disease breakdown rates in the absence and in the presence of HIV infection. With correct input data, the model provides a useful blueprint for health agencies in designing effective programmes for curbing the future course of these dual epidemics in the population.

Received 1 October 1993


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J. M. FitzGerald and S. Houston
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Can. Med. Assoc. J., July 1, 1999; 161(1): 47 - 51.
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