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© 1992 Oxford University Press

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The Relationship between Age and the Prevalence of Senile Dementia: A Meta-Analysis of Recent Data

KAREN RITCHIE, DANIEL KILDEA and JEAN-MARIE ROBINE

Instilut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicate INSERM CJF 88-12, CHR Lapeyronie, 555 Route de Ganges, 34059 Montellier, France

Ritchie K (Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, INSERM CJF 88-12. CHR Lapeyronie, 555 Route de Ganges, 34059 Montpellier, France), Kildea D and Robine J-M. The relationship between age and the prevalence of senile dementia: A meta-analysis of recent data. International Journal of Epidemiology 1992; 2l: 763–769.

A linear regression model derived from a meta-analysis of 13 epidemiological studias of senile dementia conducted since 1980, and employing internationalty-known case-finding procedures, suggests a much lower general rate of dementia prevalence than has been previously estimated. An exponential in with age is observed, with senile dementia prevalence diagnosed by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-III) criteria doubling every 6 years and senile dementia of the Alzheimer's type (SDAT) every 4.2 years. Studies providing data for the oldest ages indicating a drop in the rate of increese after the age of 80 suggest that senile dementia may be age-related rather than ageing-related. Estimates derived from this model may provide a reasonably accurate means of estimating dementia prevalence in the general population. The limitations of this method for the purposes of prediction and studies of risk factors are discussed in relation to the hypothesized heterogeneity of senile dementia and possible cohort effects.

Received 1 March 1992


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