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© 1992 Oxford University Press

research-article

Seasonality in Tropical AIDS: A Geographical. Analysis

M R SMALLMAN-RAYNOR and A D CLIFF

Department of Geography, University of Cambridge Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK

Reprint requests to A D Cliff

This paper presents evidence that the growth rate of the AIDS epidemic at the district level in Uganda, Central Africa, displays a seasonally recurring geographical pattern, with epidemic acceleration in some areas of the country in the first 8 months of each year. The spatial and temporal variations in acceleration appear to be correlated with the predominant agricultural systems in different parts of Uganda. Based upon the frequently hypothesized relationship between malnourishment and the progression to clinical AIDS in HIV-infected people, it is suggested that the variations in epidemic speed reflect the seasonal patterns of nutritional deficiency which occur under some tropical agricultural systems. These preliminary findings require further verification since they have important implications for directing nutrition-related remedial responses to the AIDS epidemic in tropical countries where malnutrition and endemic HIV infection coincide.

Received 1 January 1992


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