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© 1992 Oxford University Press

research-article

Asymptomatic Subjects at HIV Diagnosis have Prolonged Survival as AIDS Patients

ANNE ESKILD, PER MAGNUS, ØYVIND NILSEN, VIGGO HASSELTVEDT and ARVE LYSTAD

Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health Geitmyrsveien 75, 0462 Oslo 4, Norway

Reprint requests: Per Magnus

All Norwegian AIDS patients diagnosed before September 1990 were included in a prospective study to estimate survival according to clinical status when HIV seropositivity was established. Data from the Norwegian HIV and AIDS registries were used in the analysis.

The median AIDS survival for all AIDS patients was estimated as 11 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 8–13 months). For the group of AIDS patients who were asymptomatic when HIV seropositivity was established, the median AIDS survival was 20 months (95% CI: 13–23 months). For the group with symptomatic HIV infection or those who already had AIDS when HIV seropositivity was established, survival was estimated to 5 months (95% CI: 1–15 months) and 4.5 months (95% CI: 2–8 months), respectively. By using a Cox proportional hazard model it was found that being asymptomatic when HIV seropositivity was established or having Pheumocystis carinii pneumonia as the initial AIDS-related disease were associated with long AIDS survival. Being HIV infected by transfusion was associated with short survival.

Long AIDS survival in the asymptomatic group may be explained by a positive selection of slow disease progressors. Differences in diagnostic routines may also cause systematic differences in the estimated AIDS survival.

Received 1 September 1991


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