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© 1991 Oxford University Press

research-article

A New Method of Estimating Prevalence of Injecting Drug Use in an Urban Population: Results from a Scottish City

MARTIN FRISCHER*,, MICHAEL BLOOR*,*, ANDREW FINLAY*, DAVID GOLDBERG{dagger}, STEPHEN GREEN{dagger}, SALLY HAW*, NEIL MCKEGANEY* and STEPHEN PLATT**

*Social Paediatric Research Unit University of Glasgow, Scotland.
**MRC Medical Sociology, Unit Glasgow, Scotland
{dagger}Communicable Diseases Unit Glasgow, Scotland.

Reprint requests to: Dr M Frischer, HIV Behavioural and Seroprevalence Study, Communicable Diseases (Scotland) Unit, Ruchill Hospital, Glasgow G20 9NB, UK.

Using modelling techniques derived from behavioural ecology, unnamed identifier data from a variety of partial samples of injecting drug users [IDUs] were used to estimate the prevalence of this population in Glasgow during 1989. The model yielded an estimate of 9424 (95% confidence interval±2460] which represents a prevalence rate of 15 per 1000 population aged 15–55. The estimated male: female ratio was 2.64: 1 and the modal IDU aged 20–24. These figures should facilitate assessment of the service requirements of this group and provide a basis from which the number of IDUs infected with HIV and the number likely to progress to AIDS can be determined. As the methodology required to facilitate reliable prevalence estimates utilizes relatively easy to obtain information it could be repeated in other urban centres where drug injecting is known to occur.

Revised 1 May 1991


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