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© 1990 Oxford University Press

research-article

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Pancreatic Cancer Mortality in Taiwan, 1971–1986

WEN C LEE and RUEY S LIN

Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University 1 Jen-Ai Road, Sec. 1, Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China

Reprint requests: R S Lin at above address.

Interest has recently emerged about the increasing trend of pancreatic cancer mortality in Taiwan, particularly in the elderly. The mortality data of pancreatic cancer over the period 1971–1986 for males and females aged 40–84 in Taiwan were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model to examine the effects of age, calendar period of death, and birth cohort. This age-period-cohort model provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends. Age is the strongest factor in predicting pancreatic cancer mortality according to the models; the oldest age group 80–84 years old has 14.5 times the risk of the youngest age group 40–44. The cohort effect is also of particular interest because the generation at greatest risk for pancreatic cancer in both sexes, is the one born between 1917 and 1926, and a declining trend is observed thereafter for more recent cohorts. Parameters of the period factor show no observable trend before 1975, followed by a significantly increasing risk in the subsequent time period. However, the drop of pancreatic cancer mortality over all age groups between 1985–86 is puzzling and a further study to monitor the secular trends in the following years is warranted.

Received 1 March 1990


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