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© 1990 Oxford University Press

research-article

Dynamics of HIV Infection and AIDS in Central African Cities

BERTRAN AUVERT*, MELINDA MOORE**,{dagger}, WILLIAM E BERTRAND**,{dagger}, ALAIN BEAUCHET*, PHILIPPE AEGERTER*, DIKASSA LUSAMBA**, KASHALA TUMBA DIONG** and JACEK KLINOWSKI{ddagger}

*INSERM U88, 91 Boulevard de l'Hôpital 75013 Paris, France.
**Ecole de Santé Publique, Université de Kinshasa, Faculté de Médecine B. P. 11850 Kinshasa 1, Zaire.
{dagger}Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine Room 701, 1501 Canal Street, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112-2823, USA.
{ddagger}Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge Lensfield Road, Cambridge CB2 1EW, UK.

Auvert B (INSERM U88, 91 Boulevard de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris, France), Moore M, Bertrand W E, Beauchet A, Aegerter P, Lusamba D, Diong K T and Klinowski J. Dynamics of HIV infection and AIDS in central African cities. International Journal of Epidemiology 1990, 19: 417–428.

A detailed stochastic model of HIV infection and AIDS for large cities in central Africa is described, which reproduces past events in Kinshasa, Zaire and projects rapid future spread of the disease, consistent with recent findings for Nairobi, Kenya. Most of the parameters used describe the behaviour of individuals, and it is therefore possible to look at the effects of changes in such behaviour, and thus to test various strategies aimed at providing effective public health policies. The model demonstrates that, if the spread of infection is to be controlled, changes in the behaviour of the major risk groups are essential. With appropriate modifications, this model could be adapted for use elsewhere in Africa.

Revised 1 November 1989


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